Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d23…37ce other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$21
14 days−$34
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$17
politics 24% −$9
sports 15% −$17
crypto 6% −$5
economics 5% −$5
finance 5% −$1
culture 5% −$5
tech 3% −$3
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 69 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 112 -0.5% -10.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 140 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 115
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage108d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $182 −$3 -2%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $46 −$1 -3%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $53 −$2 -4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $345 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $110 −$2 -2%
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $63 −$2 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $163 −$3 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $38 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 14 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $54 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $240 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $261 −$2 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $172 $0 -0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $308 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $142 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 06 $80 −$3 -4%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $65 −$1 -1%
Will South Africa reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $0 $0 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $337 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $37 $0 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $309 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $67 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 90¢ $45 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $4 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $5 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $37 7h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $60 7h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $61 13h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $53 14h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $54 20h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $45 21h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $46 25h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $62 25h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 30h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $52 31h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $53 36h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 37h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 42h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 42h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 94¢ $62 2d
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 96¢ $63 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $43 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $44 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $60 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $62 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $59 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $59 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.01 · official $66.01 (match) · 599 history records