Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d20…aeda world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$1
other 8% −$1
sports 6% $0
politics 6% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +2.7% -7.1% 33% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 13 -5.2% -14.3% 31% 8% -9.1%
all 34 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 3% -9.4%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.0%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage466d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 96¢ 94¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $39 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $3 +$1 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 09 $1 $0 -8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 08 $12 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $9 $0 +4%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $2 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on April 19? Apr 19 $9 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $2 $0 -6%
Will 'Adolescence: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this Mar 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $11 $0 +3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kentucky win the SEC Tournament? Mar 10 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $16 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $33 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $2 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $34 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $34 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $34 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $1 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $32 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $38 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $0 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $10 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $28 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 73¢ $39 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $39 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $39 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.49 · official $37.54 (match) · 106 history records