Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

7D 0x7d20…71f4 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5,366 (+79%) realized +$5,629 · open −$263

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate31%4W / 9L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$398per market

Trades / day18.3pace

Fees−$130est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$637now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)-4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+5.2%	-4.8%	31%	23%	+64.0%
≤30d	13	+5.2%	-4.8%	31%	23%	+64.0%
≤90d	13	+5.2%	-4.8%	31%	23%	+64.0%
all	13	+5.2%	-4.8%	31%	23%	+64.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.8%	23%	+64.0%
10%	-13.9%	23%	+48.3%
15%	-22.2%	23%	+34.0%
20%	-29.9%	23%	+20.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 70% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +81% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +81% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +36% → late -21% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,697 vs −$230 · ×7.38 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$637

Realized+$5,629

Unrealized−$263

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses4 / 9

Est. fees paid−$130

Open positions4

Markets (closed)13 / 17

History coverage2d

Avg bet$398

Trades / day18.3

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	52¢	52¢	$500	$505	+$5 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	16¢	10¢	$200	$130	−$70 (-35%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$100	$1	−$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$100	$1	−$99 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 17	$105	−$100	-96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$606	−$590	-97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Jun 17	$1,328	+$4,756	+358%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 16	$1,437	−$107	-8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5	Jun 16	$705	−$688	-98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 16	$205	−$200	-98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$267	−$260	-97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$219	−$55	-25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$86	−$69	-80%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$589	+$1,692	+287%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$253	+$339	+134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$55	$0	+1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	52¢	$507	1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan?	BUY Yes	7¢	$103	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	16¢	$205	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$105	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	12¢	$606	4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	21¢	$1,328	6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	SELL Norway	44¢	$1,330	6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	46¢	$1,437	6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	17¢	$682	26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	19¢	$23	26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	18¢	$205	26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	12¢	$164	26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	26¢	$164	26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	34¢	$219	26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Over	3¢	$17	27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	14¢	$86	27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$2,281	27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	25¢	$589	28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	99¢	$592	35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	42¢	$253	36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$55	36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	1¢	$1	36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	99¢	$1	36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	99¢	$24	36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	99¢	$30	36h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $636.90 · official $636.90 (match) · 28 history records