Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d1d…b4d8 weather 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-9%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate64%41W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% +$6
crypto 19% −$15
other 12% −$1
sports 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -6.4% -15.3% 69% 43% -9.9%
≤30d 56 -11.9% -20.3% 64% 41% -16.3%
≤90d 64 -12.3% -20.6% 64% 41% -18.1%
all 64 -12.3% -20.6% 64% 41% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 41% -18.1%
10% -28.2% 23% -25.9%
15% -35.1% 17% -33.1%
20% -41.5% 14% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses41 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)64 / 75
History coverage31d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 86¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 88¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 82¢ 79¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 −$2 -33%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 +$1 +32%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +59%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 18¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL No 49¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 20¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 82¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 88¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $5 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 5¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.88 · official $13.75 (match) · 142 history records