Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7d1b…e75c
world · 143 markets active 0h ago
5.0score
+$11,841 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,626 · open +$513
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19,393
Realized+$10,626
Unrealized+$513
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses71 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions39
Markets (closed)104 / 143
History coverage160d
Avg bet$509
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 39 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$295
30 days+$1,747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $5,949 $6,835 +$887 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 68¢ 94¢ $3,274 $4,507 +$1,233 (+38%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $955 $1,112 +$157 (+16%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $665 $693 +$28 (+4%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 83¢ 91¢ $586 $642 +$57 (+10%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $642 $574 −$68 (-11%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $784 $518 −$266 (-34%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $435 $444 +$9 (+2%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $244 $427 +$183 (+75%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 25¢ 4¢ $2,512 $420 −$2,092 (-83%)
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? No 66¢ 76¢ $307 $356 +$49 (+16%)
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $326 $337 +$11 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 79¢ 99¢ $264 $329 +$65 (+25%)
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $261 $270 +$9 (+3%)
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $252 $262 +$10 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $198 $220 +$22 (+11%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 35¢ $145 $169 +$24 (+17%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 98¢ $133 $161 +$28 (+21%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $113 $148 +$35 (+31%)
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? No 87¢ 96¢ $133 $147 +$13 (+10%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $113 $141 +$28 (+24%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 50¢ 64¢ $98 $124 +$26 (+27%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $61 $122 +$61 (+99%)
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam? No 31¢ 24¢ $133 $103 −$30 (-22%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Yes 68¢ 44¢ $133 $85 −$48 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLD? Jun 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Jun 02 $9 +$4 +46%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $249 +$6 +2%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $108 +$14 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $187 +$9 +5%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $128 +$7 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $420 +$74 +18%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31? Jun 01 $917 +$104 +11%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? Jun 01 $995 +$77 +8%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $428 +$898 +210%
Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $60 +$119 +198%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $1,440 −$1,009 -70%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $13 +$3 +23%
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $36 +$64 +177%
Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $132 +$34 +25%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $200 +$86 +43%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $83 +$34 +41%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $145 +$1,438 +989%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $46 −$37 -79%
Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31? May 08 $5 −$2 -33%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $164 +$15 +9%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by April 30? May 01 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? May 01 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? May 01 $756 +$106 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30? May 01 $527 +$33 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by April 30, 2026? May 01 $907 +$110 +12%
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $336 −$240 -71%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $904 −$798 -88%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $584 +$1,423 +244%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $222 +$2 +1%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30? Apr 22 $706 −$604 -86%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 5? Apr 21 $9 +$1 +11%
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliament Apr 21 $447 −$281 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% +$6,886
tech 23% +$375
politics 10% +$1,125
other 10% +$2,752
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 51m
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath BUY Yes 23¢ $1 12h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 17h
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $3 18h
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $12 18h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 21h
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 22h
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 22h
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 22h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 22h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 23h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 23h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 24h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24h
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 24h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 34h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 35h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $36 36h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 36h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 36h
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 37h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 34 +15.0% +4.0% 56% 38% +21.6%
≤90d 79 +3.8% -6.1% 59% 41% +4.9%
all 104 +24.8% +12.9% 68% 45% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.9% 45% +11.1%
10% ← realistic here +2.1% 24% +0.5%
15% -7.8% 19% -9.2%
20% -16.8% 12% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,393.45 · official $19,393.49 (match) · 3500 history records