trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 58¢ | 56¢ | $149 | $145 | −$4 (-3%) |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | T1 | 52¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Team WE | 7¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Jun 13 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $51 | +$55 | +109% |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | Jun 12 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $51 | +$88 | +172% |
| Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 | Jun 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 5? | Jun 11 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 | Jun 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? | Jun 10 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 10 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November | Nov 05 | $4 | −$2 | -39% |
| Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election bef | Nov 05 | $2 | −$1 | -67% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%? | Nov 05 | $1 | $0 | -31% |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Nov 03 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | -63.0% | -66.5% | 15% | 15% | -16.1% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -63.0% | -66.5% | 15% | 15% | -16.1% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -63.0% | -66.5% | 15% | 15% | -16.1% |
| all | 17 | -56.2% | -60.3% | 18% | 12% | -16.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -60.3% | 12% | -16.7% |
| 10% | -64.1% | 12% | -24.6% |
| 15% | -67.6% | 12% | -31.9% |
| 20% | -70.8% | 12% | -38.6% |