Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d17…5297 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,913 (-54%) realized −$1,448 · open −$465
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$2,193
other 12% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-77.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -75.4% -77.7% 12% 12% -72.0%
≤30d 8 -75.4% -77.7% 12% 12% -72.0%
≤90d 8 -75.4% -77.7% 12% 12% -72.0%
all 8 -75.4% -77.7% 12% 12% -72.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.7% 12% -72.0%
10% -79.8% 12% -74.7%
15% -81.8% 12% -77.1%
20% -83.6% 12% -79.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$355 vs −$280 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$695
Realized−$1,448
Unrealized−$465
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $420 $543 +$123 (+29%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 12¢ $520 $130 −$390 (-75%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 2¢ $220 $22 −$198 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $365 +$355 +97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $404 −$400 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $306 −$300 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $123 −$120 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $123 −$120 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $734 −$720 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $225 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $528 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $404 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $365 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $103 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $204 21h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $306 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $123 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $123 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $734 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $431 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $695.40 · official $695.40 (match) · 18 history records