Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d16…2154 crypto 376 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-2%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%117W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$20
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$47
crypto 24% −$52
other 20% +$60
politics 6% −$19
world 6% −$24
culture 1% −$6
tech 1% −$8
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +7.8% -2.4% 29% 29% -0.1%
≤30d 147 +7.2% -3.0% 31% 31% -0.7%
≤90d 147 +7.2% -3.0% 31% 31% -0.7%
all 376 -3.3% -12.5% 31% 26% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 26% -12.4%
10% -20.9% 22% -20.8%
15% -28.6% 17% -28.5%
20% -35.6% 15% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses117 / 259
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)376 / 376
History coverage174d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 376 Trades
no open positions (120 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $3 +$27 +873%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $6 +$8 +127%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $2 +$6 +300%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4 +$8 +206%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Brian Cipenga: 1+ goals Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +64%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $4 +$23 +556%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $4 +$2 +46%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots Jun 26 $2 +$1 +48%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 26 $2 +$2 +109%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $2 +$4 +180%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assists Jun 26 $1 +$2 +210%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 $0 +30%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1 $0 +14%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $1 $0 -27%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Norway to score first vs. France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $37 −$4 -12%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +257%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -43%
Tunisia to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 +$2 +76%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Brian Cipenga: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6h
Brian Cipenga: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $2 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $2 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 68¢ $27 7h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 913 history records