Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:59:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d13…033b weather 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$131 (+12%) realized +$231 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%35W / 89L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$96
14 days+$49
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% +$47
sports 7% +$6
other 3% −$30
world 2% +$18
economics 1% −$14
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +35.8% +22.9% 100% 100% +17.9%
≤30d 77 -49.3% -54.2% 34% 29% +3.6%
≤90d 100 -30.4% -37.1% 32% 28% +3.3%
all 124 -31.2% -37.8% 28% 25% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 25% +1.2%
10% -43.7% 19% -8.5%
15% -49.2% 15% -17.3%
20% -54.2% 12% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$231
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses35 / 89
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage284d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 28? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $101 +$21 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $51 +$41 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? Jun 23 $91 +$14 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $72 +$20 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? Jun 20 $60 +$14 +23%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on June Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 29? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 4? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 31? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 6? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 31? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 26? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 28? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 1? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or higher on June 3? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 28? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 1? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 30? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 27? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on May Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 29? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 3.4% and 3 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 29? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 28? Jun 19 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 26? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 27? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on May Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 3.7% and 3 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Evan Mobley win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Evan Mobley win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will James Harden win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $58 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 +$8 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 28? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $92 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 86¢ $91 6d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 77¢ $72 7d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? BUY Yes 81¢ $60 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 12d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $58 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 13d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 14d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 14d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 14d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 15d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 15d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 15d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 83¢ $27 15d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 96¢ $27 15d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 15d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $23 15d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.96 · official $1.96 (match) · 378 history records