Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7D 0x7d11…b3a4 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$477 (-9%) realized −$343 · open −$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$163
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$205
other 26% +$294
politics 9% −$97
sports 8% −$422
tech 2% −$10
crypto 1% −$68
finance 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +57.1% +42.1% 100% 100% +42.1%
≤30d 8 -12.7% -21.0% 62% 50% -10.4%
≤90d 36 -4.3% -13.4% 64% 61% -13.3%
all 39 +21.3% +9.8% 64% 62% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 62% -16.3%
10% -0.7% 54% -24.3%
15% -10.3% 41% -31.6%
20% -19.1% 21% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$114 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$343
Unrealized−$134
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)39 / 45
History coverage99d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $108 $130 +$22 (+20%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $69 $70 +$2 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $49 $40 −$9 (-18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $49 $38 −$10 (-21%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 7¢ $80 $10 −$70 (-88%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 29 $78 +$44 +57%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 16 $249 +$119 +48%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 05 $104 +$4 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $75 −$75 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $118 +$20 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $84 −$84 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 31 $41 +$30 +73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $198 +$76 +38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 24 $51 +$30 +59%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $49 +$16 +34%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $54 +$23 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 23 $50 +$20 +41%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $206 +$134 +65%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? May 22 $51 +$24 +46%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $65 +$31 +48%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 10 $80 −$42 -53%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 05 $103 +$33 +31%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 27 $351 +$62 +18%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 25 $70 +$83 +119%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $224 +$65 +29%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 24 $70 +$23 +33%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 23 $242 +$80 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $98 −$56 -57%
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e Apr 14 $222 −$222 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 13 $90 −$90 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $202 −$202 -100%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 11 $191 −$97 -51%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $195 +$35 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $57 +$23 +40%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 08 $98 +$38 +38%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 08 $157 +$112 +72%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 06 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Mar 30 $9 +$89 +1023%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $53 +$33 +63%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Mar 23 $293 −$293 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 73¢ $45 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 42¢ $77 4d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $69 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 56¢ $80 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $49 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $77 10d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 10d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $369 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $30 23d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $108 23d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $36 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $24 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $46 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $75 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $138 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $84 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $71 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $41 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $274 32d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? SELL Yes 81¢ $81 35d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 65¢ $65 36d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $77 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? SELL No 88¢ $70 36d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 37d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May SELL Yes 1¢ $2 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $341 38d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? SELL No 94¢ $75 38d
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $96 39d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 60¢ $54 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.43 · official $289.43 (match) · 124 history records