Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d10…6997 crypto 1590 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,599 (-77%) realized −$6,599 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%866W / 724L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day69.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$356
sports 42% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +5.8% -4.3% 62% 12% -9.1%
≤30d 1590 -7.7% -16.4% 54% 54% -13.2%
≤90d 1590 -7.7% -16.4% 54% 54% -13.2%
all 1590 -7.7% -16.4% 54% 54% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 54% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 53% -21.5%
15% -31.7% 51% -29.1%
20% -38.4% 48% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses866 / 724
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1590 / 1590
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day69.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1590 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $242 −$6 -2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $50 −$2 -4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $101 −$7 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1,807 +$8 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1,218 +$22 +2%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $154 +$1 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $4 +$1 +24%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 09 $6 −$1 -16%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $5 $0 -5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $3 −$1 -35%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $3 $0 -7%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $7 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $20 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 30 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 30 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 30 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 30 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 30 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 30 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 30 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 30 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 30 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 79¢ $236 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $81 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $80 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $80 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 58¢ $48 5h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $50 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $50 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $50 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 45¢ $44 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 47¢ $48 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $3 36h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 99¢ $201 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 93¢ $224 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 93¢ $449 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 83¢ $0 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 82¢ $228 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 82¢ $5 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 82¢ $281 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 82¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 82¢ $20 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 82¢ $14 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 82¢ $29 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 82¢ $20 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 83¢ $17 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 87¢ $470 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 87¢ $188 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 32¢ $16 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 27¢ $14 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 75¢ $19 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 74¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records