Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d0d…fbb3 crypto 224 markets active 5h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,499 (-8%) realized −$2,511 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%105W / 116L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days+$324
14 days−$252
30 days+$615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 90% −$2,681
sports 6% +$48
other 3% −$28
crypto 1% −$29
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +16.8% +5.7% 65% 65% +13.2%
≤30d 49 +12.7% +2.0% 65% 63% -0.8%
≤90d 106 -9.4% -18.1% 51% 48% -18.0%
all 221 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 45% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 45% -17.6%
10% -26.3% 40% -25.5%
15% -33.4% 36% -32.7%
20% -39.9% 28% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$49 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$2,511
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses105 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)221 / 224
History coverage103d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 43¢ 44¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 18¢ 46¢ $7 $17 +$10 (+153%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $51 +$47 +93%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $50 +$21 +42%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$25 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 +$12 +52%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$30 +146%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 +$22 +73%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $50 +$19 +38%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $18 −$18 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $39 +$30 +77%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 22 $30 +$27 +90%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $21 +$25 +119%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $53 +$44 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 21 $32 +$20 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +48%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$22 +146%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $33 +$21 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 20 $66 −$35 -52%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 +$11 +59%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $29 −$29 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 +$64 +146%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$43 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $33 +$32 +96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $943 −$558 -59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 09 $39 −$18 -46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 09 $71 −$17 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 05 $508 +$50 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 04 $940 +$179 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 04 $504 +$60 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $819 +$166 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $46 +$10 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 26 $1,260 +$418 +33%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $20 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 17h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $50 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $51 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $2 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $22 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $51 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $30 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 23h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $20 23h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $10 24h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $50 24h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $20 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $30 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $18 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 41h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 45h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $39 45h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $21 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $53 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $32 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 61¢ $33 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $30 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 24¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.11 · official $89.11 (match) · 860 history records