Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7d0c…a3b7 sports 628 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (612 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$24,158 (-20%) realized −$23,363 · open −$795
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +122% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%269W / 175L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day612.2pace
Fees−$1,244est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$36,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$19,310
other 31% −$1,910
crypto 0% −$9
world 0% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (612 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+101.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 444 +122.3% +101.1% 61% 55% +8.0%
≤30d 444 +122.3% +101.1% 61% 55% +8.0%
≤90d 444 +122.3% +101.1% 61% 55% +8.0%
all 444 +122.3% +101.1% 61% 55% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover612.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +101.1% 55% +8.0%
10% ← realistic here +81.9% 49% -2.3%
15% +64.3% 45% -11.8%
20% +48.2% 39% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +122% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +173% → late +71% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$164 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$36,113
Realized−$23,363
Unrealized−$795
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses269 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,244
Open positions204
Markets (closed)444 / 628
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$190
Trades / day612.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 204 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 67¢ 62¢ $667 $615 −$52 (-8%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 49¢ $523 $526 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 74¢ 72¢ $541 $525 −$15 (-3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 33¢ 34¢ $500 $523 +$23 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 46¢ 35¢ $678 $518 −$160 (-24%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 80¢ 80¢ $516 $516 +$0 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 51¢ 48¢ $542 $516 −$27 (-5%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $509 $513 +$4 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 60¢ 62¢ $500 $512 +$12 (+2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 95¢ 97¢ $500 $510 +$11 (+2%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Sweden 74¢ 72¢ $520 $510 −$10 (-2%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $512 $509 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) Türkiye 89¢ 86¢ $522 $509 −$14 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 40¢ 40¢ $512 $506 −$6 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 42¢ $499 $506 +$6 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 48¢ 48¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $509 $504 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Curaçao 57¢ 57¢ $499 $504 +$5 (+1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jordan 62¢ 62¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Norway 65¢ 66¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? No 83¢ 84¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 94¢ 95¢ $499 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $500 $502 +$3 (+1%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 88¢ 88¢ $499 $500 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Tunisia 69¢ 68¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $500 −$16 -3%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 25 $141 −$141 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $249 −$249 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $506 −$506 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $370 −$370 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $296 −$296 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $124 +$87 +70%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $125 +$126 +101%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $250 +$485 +194%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1 +$1 +100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $290 +$319 +110%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,057 −$478 -45%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,031 −$429 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $598 −$554 -92%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $44 +$21 +47%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 25 $257 +$211 +82%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $43 +$209 +486%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 25 $245 +$49 +20%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $51 +$4 +9%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $999 +$371 +37%
Korea Republic to win the second half? Jun 25 $125 +$135 +108%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $500 +$176 +35%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $500 +$246 +49%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $499 +$166 +33%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $53 +$169 +318%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $24 +$269 +1114%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 25 $250 +$173 +69%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $250 +$66 +27%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $77 +$351 +456%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $68 +$500 +733%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $77 +$98 +127%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $87 −$87 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $130 −$130 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $125 −$125 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $157 −$119 -76%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 25 $132 −$132 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 9m
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $499 9m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 19¢ $0 10m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 10m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $418 12m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 13m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 15m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2 15m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $2 41m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $180 42m
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $7 45m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $0 52m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $9 53m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $500 56m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $2 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $217 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $64 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $15 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $7 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $91 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $7 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $9 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 39¢ $12 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $2 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 16¢ $4 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $3 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 38¢ $10 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $205 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 38¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 17¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,112.83 · official $36,112.25 (match) · 3500 history records