Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d0a…e705 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate21%14W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$14
other 11% +$4
politics 10% −$5
sports 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 18 -11.2% -19.7% 6% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 53 +4.2% -5.8% 19% 15% -9.5%
all 68 +2.8% -7.0% 21% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 12% -9.6%
10% -15.9% 12% -18.3%
15% -24.0% 10% -26.2%
20% -31.5% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses14 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage607d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $131 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $71 $0 +1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $108 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $93 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $190 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $100 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $92 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $96 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $95 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $25 +$1 +3%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 +$4 +48%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$10 +165%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $4 +$6 +146%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $12 +$3 +29%
Jets vs. Stars Apr 06 $11 +$7 +64%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Apr 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 30h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $5 32h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 10d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $6 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 15d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $19 17d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $19 17d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 18d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.32 · official $69.32 (match) · 271 history records