Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7D 0x7d09…71ff crypto 1458 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$260 (+2%) realized +$258 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate77%1126W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day31.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$13
14 days+$27
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% +$148
crypto 38% −$226
other 1% +$17
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 5% -8.4%
≤30d 82 +1.2% -8.5% 99% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 1453 -2.8% -12.0% 77% 59% -9.9%
all 1453 -2.8% -12.0% 77% 59% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 59% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 25% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1126 / 327
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1453 / 1458
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 18 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 18 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $56 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June Jun 16 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on June Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 16 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 15 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 15 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 15 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on June Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June Jun 11 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 11 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 09 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on June Jun 09 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun Jun 09 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 08 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 08 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June Jun 06 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on June 3? Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Jun Jun 05 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June Jun 05 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun Jun 05 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 03 $60 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $16 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $14 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $27 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $3 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $27 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $3 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $3 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $7 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $23 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.81 · official $271.81 (match) · 3500 history records