Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d09…4304 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%36W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$6
crypto 12% +$2
politics 2% $0
tech 2% +$1
sports 2% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 +0.2% -9.3% 72% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses36 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage534d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 03 $77 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 05 $69 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 01 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Nov 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 02 $46 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 29 $5,621 −$6 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 18 $17 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 02 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will the People's Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election Mar 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers finish with the worst regular season recor Mar 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 03 $19 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 24-31? Feb 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ja Morant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Jan 10 $19 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 10 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $84 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $77 31d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 63d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 63d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $48 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $43 93d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $39 93d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 149d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $62 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $9 181d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 181d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 183d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $66 212d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $26 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $50 243d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $50 274d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 302d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $38 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $23 334d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $46 334d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 364d
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.62 · official $83.62 (match) · 106 history records