Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7d09…ec55 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.1% -7.7% 72% 50% +3.3%
≤30d 18 +2.1% -7.7% 72% 50% +3.3%
≤90d 18 +2.1% -7.7% 72% 50% +3.3%
all 18 +2.1% -7.7% 72% 50% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 50% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 39% -6.5%
15% -24.6% 22% -15.6%
20% -32.0% 22% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 79¢ 100¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $55 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $12 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $12 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.49 · official $20.41 · 53 history records