Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d08…eda0 sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,039 (-18%) realized −$1,978 · open −$61
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%36W / 27L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$557
14 days+$557
30 days+$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$1,183
other 34% −$398
economics 5% −$518
world 3% −$107
politics 2% −$78
tech 1% +$2
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.5% -8.1% 73% 50% +12.6%
≤30d 26 -4.6% -13.7% 69% 50% +9.9%
≤90d 30 -0.7% -10.1% 73% 47% +9.9%
all 63 -14.6% -22.7% 57% 37% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 37% -27.7%
10% -30.1% 30% -34.6%
15% -36.9% 22% -40.9%
20% -43.0% 16% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$202 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$1,978
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses36 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage579d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Under 80¢ 92¢ $80 $92 +$12 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $84 −$6 (-6%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Under 85¢ 98¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Under $70 $1 −$69 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $150 −$50 -33%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$150 +150%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $166 +$42 +25%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $251 +$12 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $125 +$60 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $60 +$3 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $152 +$58 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $86 +$133 +155%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $592 +$133 +22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $90 +$5 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $82 +$18 +22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $75 +$25 +33%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $32 +$18 +54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $104 +$3 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $79 +$45 +56%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $52 −$52 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 26 $188 +$62 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
World Championships: USA vs. Austria May 26 $237 +$32 +14%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $136 +$3 +2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $108 +$101 +94%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $133 +$3 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 14 $131 +$2 +1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Mar 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 19 Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) Mar 18 $1,106 −$1,106 -100%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 18 $130 +$1 +0%
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Mar 01 $27 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 01 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 25 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)? Feb 08 $74 $0 +0%
Will Post Malone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 06 $22 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $36 +$14 +39%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 28 $235 −$235 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jul 02 $58 −$58 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid vs. Juventus (To Advance) Jul 02 $175 +$75 +43%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? Jun 13 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? Jun 12 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Spain beat Portugal? Jun 12 $316 −$316 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $333 +$995 +299%
Will Spain beat France? Jun 06 $66 +$94 +144%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 05 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 05 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 85¢ $11 12m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 80¢ $80 13m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $25 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $41 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over $0 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over $6 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $40 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 26¢ $254 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 10¢ $17 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 10¢ $83 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 25¢ $250 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $0 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $100 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $50 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 10¢ $0 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 10¢ $81 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.46 · official $188.56 · 460 history records