Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7D 0x7d06…755b sports 182 markets active 4h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,814 (-3%) realized −$1,814 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%88W / 93L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$1,449est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,203
7 days−$1,365
14 days−$2,877
30 days−$2,884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,950
crypto 0% +$51
other 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -17.6% -25.5% 41% 38% -19.5%
≤30d 181 -7.2% -16.0% 49% 41% -13.8%
≤90d 181 -7.2% -16.0% 49% 41% -13.8%
all 181 -7.2% -16.0% 49% 41% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 41% -13.8%
10% -24.0% 32% -22.0%
15% -31.4% 25% -29.6%
20% -38.1% 18% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$167 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,814
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses88 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,449
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage29d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$14 +65%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $500 −$280 -56%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $199 +$92 +46%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $251 −$229 -91%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $244 −$239 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,088 −$541 -50%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $316 +$261 +82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $967 −$290 -30%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $324 −$41 -13%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $186 −$139 -75%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $543 −$135 -25%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $915 −$189 -21%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $502 +$119 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $228 +$327 +143%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $681 −$263 -39%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $387 −$380 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $726 +$111 +15%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $235 −$71 -30%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $570 +$244 +43%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $425 +$146 +34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $171 +$254 +149%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $144 +$27 +19%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 −$1 -4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $268 −$134 -50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $122 +$26 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $164 −$160 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $171 −$7 -4%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $200 −$197 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $157 −$156 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $282 −$124 -44%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $368 +$293 +80%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $406 −$38 -9%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $1,127 +$269 +24%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $513 +$79 +15%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $271 −$4 -1%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $252 +$19 +7%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $274 +$122 +44%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $277 −$135 -49%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $407 −$400 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $461 −$22 -5%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Cuiabá EC: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $253 +$209 +83%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $515 +$45 +9%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $544 −$534 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $343 +$452 +132%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $40 −$39 -98%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $37 +$2 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $286 −$159 -56%
Yokohama FC vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $235 −$48 -20%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $118 +$11 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $21 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $291 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 75¢ $292 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $199 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $199 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $209 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles $23 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $251 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $244 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $510 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 25¢ $512 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $11 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $567 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $374 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 69¢ $203 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 43¢ $316 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score AND Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2 BUY 39¢ $243 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $271 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 38¢ $270 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $324 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $324 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $335 15h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Cameron Norrie 12¢ $47 15h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 46¢ $186 16h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Arthur Rinderknech 17¢ $90 16h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 40¢ $222 17h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 59¢ $318 17h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 58¢ $321 18h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 25¢ $6 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $238.58 · 513 history records