Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d06…ca6e sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$155 (-1%) realized −$154 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$52
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 84% $0
sports 10% −$355
other 3% +$225
crypto 2% −$29
world 0% +$3
culture 0% $0
tech 0% −$10
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 40% -43.0%
≤90d 30 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 33% -11.1%
all 31 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 35% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 35% -11.0%
10% -31.7% 35% -19.5%
15% -38.3% 26% -27.3%
20% -44.3% 23% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$39 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$154
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage96d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $51 +$25 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $16 +$27 +165%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $53 −$52 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $27 +$45 +165%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $41 −$32 -79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 11 $16 −$10 -62%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 06 $105 −$104 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026? May 02 $9 −$9 -97%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $46 −$45 -98%
Stars vs. Wild May 01 $86 +$71 +83%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $125 +$28 +22%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 28 $31 +$24 +76%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $109 −$109 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 21 $9,300 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 21 $201 −$29 -14%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Apr 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $100 +$134 +134%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 01 $50 +$12 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 29 $100 +$69 +70%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 25 $36 +$84 +233%
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academ Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $35 +$11 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 66¢ $51 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $16 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $53 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $20 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $51 28d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 37¢ $27 30d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 32d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $34 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $53 32d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 33d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL No 10¢ $6 37d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $105 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 94¢ $50 44d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $9 46d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 23¢ $16 46d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 41¢ $46 47d
Stars vs. Wild BUY Wild 54¢ $86 48d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? SELL Yes 70¢ $153 48d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Hawks 32¢ $60 50d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 56¢ $31 51d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? BUY Yes 56¢ $70 52d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? BUY Yes 56¢ $55 52d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 55¢ $100 56d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 99¢ $9,300 56d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 89¢ $109 56d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $9,300 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 55¢ $78 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 65¢ $95 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 64¢ $51 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.41 · official $53.41 (match) · 72 history records