Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7d04…ebde
crypto · 438 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$8 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses344 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)435 / 438
History coverage139d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 3 History 435 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$31
14 days+$15
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Atlanta Dream 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Arizona Diamondbacks 28¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 84¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $4 +$6 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $9 +$14 +154%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $7 +$1 +21%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $7 +$13 +180%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +38%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 07 $9 +$7 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1AM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 02 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4PM ET Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5PM ET May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Fredrikstad FK vs. IK Start: O/U 5.5 May 29 $16 −$12 -77%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner May 29 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5PM ET May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET May 21 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6AM ET May 16 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% +$6
politics 15% −$2
other 13% −$3
sports 11% +$5
world 6% +$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $6 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 29h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 60¢ $5 45h
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) BUY Knicks 82¢ $7 2d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 39¢ $9 2d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 37¢ $4 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $10 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $7 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 65¢ $5 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 86¢ $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $6 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 72¢ $9 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 52¢ $7 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ $8 5d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $9 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $7 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 11d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 70¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $14 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +38.1% +25.0% 79% 79% +21.6%
≤30d 60 +3.8% -6.1% 88% 20% -8.7%
≤90d 264 +0.8% -8.8% 84% 5% -9.5%
all 435 +0.2% -9.4% 79% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 5% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.00 · official $16.00 (match) · 1884 history records