Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d02…1bb8 other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day144.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$18
other 37% +$6
sports 3% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.9% -14.8% 21% 21% -6.4%
≤30d 33 -5.9% -14.8% 21% 21% -6.4%
≤90d 33 -5.9% -14.8% 21% 21% -6.4%
all 33 -5.9% -14.8% 21% 21% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 21% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 18% -15.4%
15% -30.4% 18% -23.6%
20% -37.2% 15% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×4.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day144.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $17 −$7 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$22 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$18 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$5 -47%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$27 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $14 +$36 +251%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $7 −$3 -38%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $16 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $6 −$3 -50%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -35%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $13 −$2 -14%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 +$23 +205%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -76%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 0m
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 0m
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 1m
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2m
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2m
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6m
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 7m
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 7m
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 8m
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.28 · official $24.67 (match) · 153 history records