Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d00…4e04 weather 103 markets active 8h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-24%) realized −$43 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate69%70W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$40
tech 22% −$7
weather 21% −$2
other 6% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.1% -9.5% 94% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 60 -4.5% -13.6% 92% 0% -13.5%
≤90d 60 -4.5% -13.6% 92% 0% -13.5%
all 102 -20.3% -27.9% 69% 15% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 15% -33.2%
10% -34.8% 13% -39.6%
15% -41.1% 10% -45.4%
20% -46.9% 9% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses70 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 7h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 7h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 7h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 7h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 7h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.40 · official $7.40 (match) · 183 history records