Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cfc…8e72 crypto 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (184 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-2%) realized −$78 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate67%57W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day183.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (184 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 48% -14.2%
≤30d 85 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 48% -14.2%
≤90d 85 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 48% -14.2%
all 85 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 48% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover183.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 48% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 27% -22.4%
15% -27.2% 9% -29.9%
20% -34.3% 7% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses57 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage2d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day183.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 60¢ 76¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 78¢ 24¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $231 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $106 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 29 $122 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $111 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $42 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $126 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $35 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $24 +$9 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $32 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $49 −$40 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $74 −$13 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $23 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$35 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $89 −$13 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $61 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $30 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $210 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $103 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.20 · official $29.77 · 416 history records