Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cfb…a7c4 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$1
politics 27% $0
crypto 10% $0
other 8% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 0% -9.5%
all 47 -2.0% -11.4% 43% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage266d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $32 +$2 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $36 +$3 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $42 −$6 -14%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 01 $3 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 30 $25 $0 -1%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Coalition for Unity and Welfare (CUB) be part of the next Governm Sep 29 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 28 $3 $0 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 28 $3 −$1 -37%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $1 $0 -37%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by less than 30%? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $42 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $24 6h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $19 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 13h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $35 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 59¢ $19 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 59¢ $14 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $37 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $4 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $39 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $36 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $40 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $21 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $21 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $14 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $25 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 89¢ $36 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $1 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $35 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $42 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records