Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7cf9…be31 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-15%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$6
sports 47% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -44.9% -50.1% 43% 43% -29.9%
≤30d 7 -44.9% -50.1% 43% 43% -29.9%
≤90d 7 -44.9% -50.1% 43% 43% -29.9%
all 7 -44.9% -50.1% 43% 43% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.1% 43% -29.9%
10% -54.9% 14% -36.6%
15% -59.3% 14% -42.7%
20% -63.2% 14% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 +$29 +65%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 +$5 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $45 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $55 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $49 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $60 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.93 · official $127.93 (match) · 13 history records