Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cf4…adcf other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$133 (-23%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%22W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$68
crypto 32% −$109
sports 7% +$40
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -13.4% -21.6% 23% 21% -32.8%
≤30d 96 -13.4% -21.6% 23% 21% -32.8%
≤90d 96 -13.4% -21.6% 23% 21% -32.8%
all 96 -13.4% -21.6% 23% 21% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 21% -32.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 20% -39.2%
15% -36.0% 19% -45.1%
20% -42.2% 18% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses22 / 74
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)96 / 108
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 81¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+44%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$7 +172%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 +$8 +786%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +194%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$32 +1544%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +650%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 58m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.52 · official $29.26 (match) · 178 history records