Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7cf2…111d
other · 97 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$25 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$38 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$167
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses40 / 45
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)85 / 97
History coverage442d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 12 History 85 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 58¢ 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? No 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $101 −$23 -23%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $151 +$6 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -50%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$1 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +106%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +184%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 30 $11 +$5 +43%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $48 −$13 -28%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $100 +$1 +1%
idOS FDV above $20M one day after launch? Mar 06 $57 +$16 +29%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? Mar 04 $97 +$2 +2%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl? Feb 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 02 $10 +$17 +176%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 02 $44 +$91 +207%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jan 31 $1 +$1 +100%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 28 $10 +$12 +120%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $124 $0 -0%
Over $16M committed to the Space public sale? Jan 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Over $18M committed to the Space public sale? Jan 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Over $20M committed to the Space public sale? Jan 17 $8 +$5 +56%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch? Jan 10 $10 $0 +4%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $15 +$4 +26%
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $52 −$8 -16%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 08 $20 +$6 +28%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 06 $12 $0 +2%
Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 05 $16 +$1 +7%
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch? Jan 05 $8 −$1 -14%
Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch? Jan 05 $7 −$1 -8%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $111 −$7 -6%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $42 +$7 +16%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Dec 29 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% +$97
sports 24% −$64
tech 23% −$30
economics 6% $0
politics 2% +$11
crypto 2% +$2
world 1% +$3
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 25m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 31m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 38m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 41m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $151 45m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $98 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $78 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $36 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $35 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $99 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $96 22h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $6 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 63¢ $10 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 47¢ $9 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $10 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $10 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $10 23h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $10 23h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.9% -13.9% 31% 23% -17.7%
≤30d 22 -12.5% -20.8% 41% 32% -16.8%
≤90d 23 -11.9% -20.3% 43% 30% -15.6%
all 85 -5.3% -14.3% 47% 31% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 31% -7.4%
10% -22.5% 22% -16.3%
15% -30.0% 15% -24.3%
20% -36.9% 13% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.44 · official $167.45 (match) · 243 history records