Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7cee…88b4 sports 45 markets active 5d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$11 (+14%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$9
sports 41% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.8% +12.9% 80% 60% -2.0%
≤30d 43 +21.1% +9.6% 42% 30% +2.2%
≤90d 45 +18.4% +7.1% 42% 31% +0.7%
all 45 +18.4% +7.1% 42% 31% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 31% +0.7%
10% -3.1% 24% -9.0%
15% -12.5% 16% -17.8%
20% -21.1% 11% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage31d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -7%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $15 $0 -3%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Jun 04 $2 +$1 +25%
CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $3 $0 +4%
Spread: Russia (-2.5) Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Vegalta Sendai vs. Ventforet Kōfu end in a draw? May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 28 $1 +$1 +91%
Exact Score: Ismaily SC 0 - 1 Pharco FC? May 28 $1 $0 -7%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 28 $1 $0 +36%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 28 $1 $0 +4%
Spread: Independiente del Valle (-2.5) May 27 $1 $0 -5%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $3 $0 -5%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime? May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $1 $0 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $1 $0 -8%
Will Gabriel Sara be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 26 $1 $0 -5%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 26 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 26 $1 $0 +2%
Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5) May 26 $1 $0 +26%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 1.5 May 26 $1 $0 +20%
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $1 $0 -6%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to Score May 25 $1 +$1 +53%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +31%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 $0 +12%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 May 24 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5) May 24 $5 $0 -2%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FK Kolos Kovalivka win on 2026-05-21? May 24 $1 +$13 +1276%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 24 $1 $0 -14%
Spread: Nara Club (-1.5) May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will CSyD Macará win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $1 $0 +21%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 6d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 12d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $0 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $0 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 14d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 15d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 15d
Will Vegalta Sendai vs. Ventforet Kōfu end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 17d
Spread: Russia (-2.5) SELL Egypt 91¢ $1 19d
Spread: Russia (-2.5) BUY Egypt 94¢ $1 19d
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $2 19d
Exact Score: Ismaily SC 0 - 1 Pharco FC? SELL No 85¢ $1 19d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $0 19d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1 19d
Exact Score: Ismaily SC 0 - 1 Pharco FC? BUY No 89¢ $1 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $0 19d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $1 20d
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? SELL No 100¢ $1 20d
CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 20d
CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 77¢ $1 20d
CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 20d
Spread: Independiente del Valle (-2.5) SELL CA Rosario Central 91¢ $1 20d
Spread: Independiente del Valle (-2.5) BUY CA Rosario Central 93¢ $1 20d
CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 77¢ $1 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $1 20d
CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records