Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7C 0x7cea…371b sports 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,545 (-7%) realized −$2,545 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%104W / 82L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days+$277
14 days+$11
30 days−$1,586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$341
other 8% −$1,279
politics 3% −$1,063
crypto 1% −$76
tech 0% −$18
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +9.9% -0.6% 86% 52% -7.1%
≤30d 96 -4.4% -13.5% 66% 49% -15.6%
≤90d 178 -3.7% -12.8% 58% 49% -14.8%
all 186 -5.0% -14.0% 56% 47% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 47% -16.5%
10% -22.2% 34% -24.5%
15% -29.8% 21% -31.8%
20% -36.6% 18% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$114 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,545
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses104 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage164d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $628 +$40 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $476 +$153 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $425 +$51 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $334 +$91 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $587 −$587 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $531 +$57 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $495 +$36 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,001 −$507 -51%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $952 +$306 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $898 +$55 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $61 +$14 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $824 +$59 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $678 +$146 +22%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $620 +$59 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $572 +$48 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $502 +$61 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $477 +$35 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$102 +100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $316 +$59 +19%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 09 $30 +$20 +64%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $49 −$49 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $35 −$5 -13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$15 +73%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $97 −$76 -79%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $82 +$14 +17%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $64 +$19 +29%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $65 −$2 -2%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $24 +$6 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $64 −$5 -7%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $62 +$2 +3%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $55 +$7 +13%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $39 +$6 +15%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $603 −$600 -100%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $68 +$10 +14%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $524 +$108 +21%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $435 +$89 +20%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $406 +$29 +7%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $363 +$43 +12%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $328 +$35 +10%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $267 +$61 +23%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $274 −$7 -3%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $221 +$53 +24%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $17 −$16 -97%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $278 −$261 -94%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $383 +$154 +40%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $289 +$95 +33%
Will Wales vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 02 $280 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $668 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $628 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $629 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $476 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $476 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $425 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $425 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $334 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $587 37h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $587 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $531 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $0 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $530 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $495 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 43¢ $62 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 44¢ $432 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,001 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,258 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $952 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $953 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 94¢ $898 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $11 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 81¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 48¢ $64 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $884 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $824 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $824 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 387 history records