Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7ce7…a2ba world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$18
world 27% −$3
politics 14% +$5
tech 6% +$2
sports 4% −$7
finance 1% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 19 +98.4% +79.5% 32% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 30 +68.4% +52.4% 37% 7% -10.2%
all 40 +50.5% +36.2% 35% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.2% 5% -10.3%
10% +23.1% 5% -18.9%
15% +11.2% 5% -26.7%
20% +0.3% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +94% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage486d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $83 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$2 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $110 +$1 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $155 −$5 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $75 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $37 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $40 +$3 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $3 −$1 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $12 +$3 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $36 $0 -1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $441 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $174 +$2 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $288 −$18 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $88 +$6 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $14 −$2 -15%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $81 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $47 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 25 $8 $0 -0%
Indiana State vs. Murray State Feb 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on February 26? Feb 25 $7 $0 +1%
Rainbow airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $7 $0 -2%
Alabama vs. Missouri Feb 18 $12 −$5 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $34 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $35 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $6 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $24 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $17 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $21 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $11 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $38 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $7 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $5 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $23 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $37 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $37 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $2 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $23 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $10 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $32 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.21 · official $2.69 (match) · 163 history records