Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7ce5…5ad8 politics 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate11%9W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$4
other 33% −$4
sports 17% −$3
world 5% $0
economics 4% +$1
culture 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 67% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 67% 0% -9.3%
all 81 -6.4% -15.3% 11% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -23.4% 1% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses9 / 72
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage382d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $66 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $66 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Mar 10 $67 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $1 $0 -33%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $67 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $66 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $1 $0 -12%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $143 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $1 $0 -33%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 11 $1 $0 -50%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $71 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $68 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $1 $0 -12%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $73 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 26 $72 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $73 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 30 $74 $0 +0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $67 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 11d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 14d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY No 99¢ $66 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $66 26d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 110d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 122d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 128d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $65 138d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $65 139d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 139d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 141d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 141d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 141d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 142d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 142d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 144d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 147d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 148d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 151d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 153d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 154d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 155d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 155d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C BUY No 100¢ $66 156d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 156d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 156d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 156d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $65 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.56 · official $66.56 (match) · 320 history records