Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7ce3…1689 weather 551 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$786 (+4%) realized +$782 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%176W / 374L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day53.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$221
14 days+$403
30 days+$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$261
crypto 5% −$128
other 3% −$28
sports 1% −$17
politics 1% −$105
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +1.7% -8.0% 36% 32% -3.1%
≤30d 176 -4.8% -13.9% 36% 30% -5.7%
≤90d 550 -8.2% -17.0% 32% 28% -9.7%
all 550 -8.2% -17.0% 32% 28% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 28% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 24% -18.3%
15% -32.2% 21% -26.2%
20% -38.8% 19% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$14 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$782
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses176 / 374
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)550 / 551
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day53.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $24 $29 +$4 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $47 −$17 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$91 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $224 −$66 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $173 −$59 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$32 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $102 −$24 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $270 +$191 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 −$15 -40%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$40 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $183 +$98 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$10 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $159 −$70 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $67 −$6 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$85 +406%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $52 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $0 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -59%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -51%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $230 +$235 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $183 −$138 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $93 −$69 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $18 −$7 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $30 −$18 -61%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $27 +$18 +68%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $6 −$1 -15%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $41 −$17 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$12 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $177 +$59 +33%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 +$20 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $173 +$33 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $61 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $32 −$7 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$5 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$71 +244%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $155 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $43 −$7 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 21m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $36 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 47¢ $60 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.89 · official $28.89 (match) · 3500 history records