Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7cde…b97d
sports · 307 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
−$269,448 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$202,041 · open −$67,406
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$80,155
Realized−$202,041
Unrealized−$67,406
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses198 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$11,340
Open positions12
Markets (closed)308 / 307
History coverage131d
Avg bet$12,213
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 12 History 308 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,135
7 days−$2,486
14 days−$4,939
30 days−$15,812
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $27,777 $29,581 +$1,804 (+6%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 93¢ 23¢ $49,145 $12,178 −$36,966 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 91¢ 99¢ $9,135 $9,945 +$810 (+9%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 76¢ 81¢ $6,420 $6,884 +$464 (+7%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 67¢ 60¢ $6,700 $6,050 −$650 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 16¢ $22,672 $5,796 −$16,876 (-74%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 12¢ $14,692 $3,044 −$11,648 (-79%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $1,930 $2,008 +$78 (+4%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 71¢ 19¢ $7,140 $1,905 −$5,235 (-73%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Yes 19¢ 40¢ $686 $1,430 +$744 (+108%)
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? No 95¢ 100¢ $556 $583 +$27 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $323 $448 +$125 (+39%)
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $260 $302 +$42 (+16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+381%)
Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $232 $0 −$232 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? No 91¢ 0¢ $10,480 $0 −$10,480 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 20? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $710 $0 −$710 (-100%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1,470 $0 −$1,470 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Celtics Thunder 57¢ 0¢ $1,140 $0 −$1,140 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Clippers 65¢ 0¢ $3,216 $0 −$3,216 (-100%)
76ers vs. Pelicans 76ers 73¢ 0¢ $12,889 $0 −$12,889 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Nets Bulls 63¢ 0¢ $1,890 $0 −$1,890 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 92¢ 0¢ $14,926 $0 −$14,926 (-100%)
Spurs vs. 76ers 76ers 26¢ 0¢ $1,300 $0 −$1,300 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Spurs 20¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 20? Jun 12 $710 −$710 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jun 12 $645 −$645 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January? Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 22? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will BNB dip to $800 in January? Jun 12 $268 −$268 -100%
Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $1,281 −$1,390 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 27? Jun 12 $224 −$224 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of Janua Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jun 12 $211 −$211 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $264 −$264 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Jun 12 $3,281 −$3,281 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $410 +$808 +197%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $243 −$233 -96%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5,881 +$3,949 +67%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 08 $326 +$125 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $9,946 −$9,900 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $12,741 +$129 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $65,039 +$7,318 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $9,500 +$568 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $4,559 −$4,501 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 27 $203 −$198 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $8,083 +$5,917 +73%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $14,185 −$14,000 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 22 $3,446 −$3,395 -98%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 21 $209 +$34 +16%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $15,007 +$4,701 +31%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $21,689 −$2,509 -12%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $1,683 +$317 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 07 $8,688 +$797 +9%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 07 $8,945 +$1,055 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 07 $32,643 +$2,705 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $3,336 +$330 +10%
76ers vs. Celtics May 01 $9,567 +$9 +0%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 01 $40,282 +$2,886 +7%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5 Apr 27 $2,349 +$271 +12%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 218.5 Apr 27 $8,600 +$1,400 +16%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Apr 26 $349 −$349 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $42,229 −$15,167 -36%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $83,745 +$11,538 +14%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 Apr 26 $1,620 −$1,613 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $8,318 −$8,289 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 26 $55,519 +$1,020 +2%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 26 $21,448 −$3,935 -18%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $16,200 +$13,386 +83%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Apr 25 $1,359 +$1,036 +76%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $69,227 +$7,031 +10%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 25 $2,865 −$1,880 -66%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $6,450 +$1,453 +22%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $5,100 −$174 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$224,146
economics 13% −$30,848
crypto 7% −$24,671
finance 4% −$3,861
other 2% +$13,926
world 2% +$5,955
politics 1% +$521
tech 1% +$812
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,126 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY No 41¢ $243 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 64¢ $26 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 64¢ $41 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 21¢ $410 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $6,680 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 37¢ $28 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $30 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 37¢ $20 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $188 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $2,883 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $5,881 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? BUY Yes 72¢ $326 3d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 19¢ $703 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $5,392 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $4,554 8d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 98¢ $41,474 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 90¢ $705 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 88¢ $8,143 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 73¢ $14,718 12d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $706 16d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $67 16d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $4,420 16d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $1,015 16d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $5 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $4,559 16d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $3 16d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $394 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +50.4% +36.1% 19% 19% -30.9%
≤30d 27 +16.5% +5.4% 33% 26% -19.1%
≤90d 189 -3.1% -12.3% 62% 41% -16.2%
all 308 -4.6% -13.6% 64% 43% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 43% -12.8%
10% -21.9% 24% -21.2%
15% ← realistic here -29.5% 19% -28.8%
20% -36.4% 13% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80,155.13 · official $80,549.92 (match) · 3500 history records