Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cdc…c289 world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate39%39W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$47
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$32
other 11% +$2
politics 2% +$1
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% −$5
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 10% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 36 -3.5% -12.7% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 42 -3.1% -12.3% 26% 0% -9.9%
all 100 -2.1% -11.4% 39% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 1% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses39 / 61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage466d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $127 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $116 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $116 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $127 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $116 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $121 −$5 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $112 −$12 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $261 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $124 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $122 +$1 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $123 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $149 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $164 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $145 +$6 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $13 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $136 +$7 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $154 −$4 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $137 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $136 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $85 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $303 +$2 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $132 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $541 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $164 −$2 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,203 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $146 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $14 −$1 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $152 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $152 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $81 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $138 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $149 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $165 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $148 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1,960 +$4 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 13 $969 +$2 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $121 −$4 -4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 31 $8 −$5 -60%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Jan 31 $2 −$1 -79%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $6 +$1 +27%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $127 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $127 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $116 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $53 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $63 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $78 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $106 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $10 38h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $127 47h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $127 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $115 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $116 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $116 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $94 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $120 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $108 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $123 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $124 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $85 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $39 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $115 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $8 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $96 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $123 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 376 history records