Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:15:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7C 0x7cda…dbe2 crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-9%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$11
14 days−$38
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$8
crypto 25% −$21
other 19% −$11
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -22.3% -29.7% 35% 30% -14.0%
≤30d 40 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 35% -21.2%
≤90d 40 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 35% -21.2%
all 40 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 35% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 35% -21.2%
10% -18.8% 32% -28.7%
15% -26.6% 28% -35.6%
20% -33.8% 22% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage18d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 60¢ 78¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -72%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $45 +$5 +10%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $12 $0 -4%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -46%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$4 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $22 −$21 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $23 −$9 -40%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -73%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +57%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $8 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 60¢ $5 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.31 · official $4.76 (match) · 150 history records