Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cd8…d7e2 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$2
other 25% −$1
politics 15% $0
sports 8% +$10
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 0% -10.2%
all 31 +2.6% -7.2% 42% 3% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 3% -8.4%
10% -16.1% 3% -17.1%
15% -24.2% 3% -25.1%
20% -31.6% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage484d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $46 −$3 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $39 +$3 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $35 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 15 $4 $0 -8%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $10 $0 -5%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Starmer out before July? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on June 6? Jun 08 $18 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $10 $0 -1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $20 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Mar 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 31 $19 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $6 $0 -3%
UTEP vs. Kennesaw State Mar 20 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $38 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $6 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $27 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $6 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $23 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $38 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $7 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $42 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $39 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $35 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $35 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 40¢ $6 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 40¢ $19 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 40¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 43¢ $4 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 43¢ $26 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $22 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 25d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 337d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 SELL No 85¢ $9 355d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL No 96¢ $6 356d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.54 · official $37.54 (match) · 101 history records