Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7cd4…0a6f
weather · 540 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$186 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$172 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$179
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses145 / 383
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)528 / 540
History coverage99d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 12 History 528 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days+$77
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-50%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 37¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on May 6? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 3? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? No 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 9? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on May 6? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Finland 49¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 3? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 7? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 01 $30 +$33 +109%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 +$14 +270%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 31 $31 +$51 +165%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 29 $34 +$10 +31%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
World Championships: Latvia vs. Finland May 21 $9 +$1 +14%
World Championships: USA vs. Germany May 20 $25 +$28 +109%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Italy May 20 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $15 +$7 +43%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $10 −$8 -82%
World Championships: Finland vs. USA May 18 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 +$3 +61%
World Championships: Germany vs. Latvia May 17 $15 +$33 +215%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 +$3 +68%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9? May 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 9? May 13 $5 +$6 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 9? May 13 $5 +$8 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 9? May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 9? May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 9? May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 9? May 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 9? May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 9? May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 9? May 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 9? May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9? May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 9? May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 7? May 08 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 6? May 08 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 6? May 08 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 6? May 08 $1 +$3 +289%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on May 6? May 08 $1 +$4 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C or below on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% −$137
weather 11% −$140
other 11% −$32
sports 9% +$132
world 2% −$3
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 6d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Finland 47¢ $30 12d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 37¢ $31 14d
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia BUY Finland 76¢ $34 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 18d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 18d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Finland 49¢ $41 18d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 19d
World Championships: Latvia vs. Finland SELL Finland 100¢ $10 22d
World Championships: Latvia vs. Finland BUY Finland 87¢ $9 22d
World Championships: USA vs. Germany SELL USA 100¢ $53 22d
World Championships: USA vs. Germany BUY USA 47¢ $25 22d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Italy SELL Czechia 93¢ $43 23d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Italy BUY Czechia 65¢ $30 23d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 23d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 3¢ $2 23d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $10 23d
World Championships: Finland vs. USA SELL Finland 100¢ $77 25d
World Championships: Finland vs. USA BUY Finland 65¢ $51 25d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 25d
World Championships: Germany vs. Latvia SELL Latvia 99¢ $48 25d
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 25d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 20 +21.9% +10.3% 60% 60% +15.1%
≤90d 479 -39.2% -45.0% 20% 18% -28.5%
all 528 -31.5% -38.0% 27% 23% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 23% -15.5%
10% -44.0% 20% -23.5%
15% -49.4% 16% -30.9%
20% -54.4% 14% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.80 · official $179.77 (match) · 1141 history records