Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7cd4…0c98 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$872 (+6%) realized +$872 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate71%35W / 14L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days+$924
14 days+$1,385
30 days+$757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$700
crypto 4% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.0% -2.3% 80% 80% +5.6%
≤30d 49 +2.9% -6.9% 71% 65% -4.5%
≤90d 49 +2.9% -6.9% 71% 65% -4.5%
all 49 +2.9% -6.9% 71% 65% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 65% -4.5%
10% -15.8% 51% -13.6%
15% -23.9% 41% -22.0%
20% -31.4% 27% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$228 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$872
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses35 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage29d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $727 +$409 +56%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $729 −$718 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $621 +$108 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,782 +$327 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,669 +$797 +48%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $609 +$614 +101%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $699 +$490 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $309 −$306 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $595 −$375 -63%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $233 −$230 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $493 +$62 +13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $400 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $289 +$202 +70%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $96 −$95 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $403 −$76 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 03 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $41 +$36 +86%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $302 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 26 $51 +$9 +17%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $105 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 25 $136 −$136 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 25 $386 −$386 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 25 $346 −$346 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 25 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 25 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 25 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 25 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 25 $46 +$25 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $156 +$40 +26%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $101 +$40 +39%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $66 +$47 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 24 $36 +$24 +66%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $300 +$87 +29%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $226 +$74 +32%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 23 $131 +$54 +41%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $121 +$50 +41%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $91 +$26 +29%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $85 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 23 $51 +$34 +66%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $101 +$53 +52%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $60 +$39 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 23 $46 +$17 +38%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 22 $91 +$40 +44%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $247 +$98 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $201 +$49 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $1,137 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $727 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 47¢ $727 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $729 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 85¢ $621 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $2,109 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 84¢ $1,782 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $2,466 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $1,669 4d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $1,223 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 49¢ $609 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1,190 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 58¢ $699 11d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 60¢ $309 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 26¢ $220 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $300 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $294 12d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 64¢ $30 13d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 63¢ $202 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner SELL TYLOO 93¢ $555 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner BUY TYLOO 82¢ $493 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Anyones Legend 100¢ $403 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 99¢ $400 13d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $491 13d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 58¢ $5 13d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 58¢ $284 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 58¢ $96 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 58¢ $327 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $403 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records