Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7cd1…1eca other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$7
politics 28% −$12
tech 4% −$2
economics 4% −$1
sports 3% +$20
world 3% −$1
culture 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 +2.1% -7.6% 12% 8% -9.5%
all 110 +2.1% -7.6% 12% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.5% 8% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 8% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage92d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $238 $238 −$0 (-0%)
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $389 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $122 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 01 $127 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $383 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $434 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $44 $0 -1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $336 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $331 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $362 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $362 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $350 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 11 $336 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $337 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $330 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $191 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $329 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $337 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $331 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $344 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $343 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $334 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $342 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $1,365 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $330 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $360 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $342 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $369 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 20 $361 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $366 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $354 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $632 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $10 7h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $238 36h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $73 46h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $73 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 3d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 5d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $49 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $72 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $72 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $70 14d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 15d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 15d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 16d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.92 · official $304.92 (match) · 334 history records