Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7C 0x7cd1…8d05 crypto 504 markets active 3h ago coverage 166d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,212 (+10%) realized +$5,212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%316W / 195L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 166d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -14.8% -22.9% 43% 41% -5.5%
≤30d 75 -14.8% -22.9% 43% 41% -5.5%
≤90d 417 -14.5% -22.7% 54% 25% -7.2%
all 511 -9.9% -18.5% 62% 25% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 25% -5.3%
10% -26.3% 19% -14.4%
15% -33.4% 15% -22.7%
20% -40.0% 13% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$39 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses316 / 195
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)511 / 504
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$107
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 511 Trades
no open positions (186 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $246 −$246 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $248 −$248 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $249 −$249 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $248 −$248 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $249 −$249 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $248 −$248 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $157 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,393 +$1,915 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $878 −$858 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$31 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $116 −$112 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$7 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$49 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$33 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $106 −$101 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $214 +$110 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $304 −$294 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $78 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $380 −$368 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $265 +$138 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$28 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $150 +$96 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records