Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7C 0x7cce…b491 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$194 (-2%) realized −$194 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate89%41W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$233
other 18% +$8
politics 11% +$5
world 10% +$17
tech 8% +$14
sports 7% −$14
economics 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 6 -3.0% -12.3% 83% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 92% 0% -8.4%
all 46 -1.1% -10.6% 89% 2% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -11.5%
10% -19.1% 0% -20.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$59 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses41 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage555d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $180 $180 −$0 (-0%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 27 $62 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 27 $190 +$6 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 05 $90 +$4 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 05 $180 +$2 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $80 −$25 -31%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 16 $260 +$13 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 30-April 5? Apr 19 $50 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 19 $200 +$8 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Apr 04 $250 +$1 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 31 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 3-9? Mar 31 $155 +$3 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $240 +$6 +3%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? Feb 14 $222 +$2 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 09 $220 +$9 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? Jan 22 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 January 12-18? Jan 22 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 16 $216 +$6 +3%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 28 $221 −$11 -5%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 October 27-November 2? Nov 25 $220 +$2 +1%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 30% and 35%? Nov 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on October 31? Nov 02 $140 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 10? Oct 10 $260 −$260 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 10 $166 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 10 $280 +$3 +1%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 14 $160 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $121K on August 6? Sep 14 $312 +$3 +1%
Will another company be the largest in the world by market cap on July Aug 05 $200 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,400 on July 9? Aug 05 $260 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jul 09 $190 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Jul 09 $280 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 28 $234 $0 -0%
Will BTC close above $98K on May 16? Jun 14 $440 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25? May 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 16 $280 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 12 $300 +$3 +1%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 12 $435 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 12 $460 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 12 $380 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 04 $199 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? Jan 04 $22 +$5 +20%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $353 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $77 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $180 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $190 22d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 27d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 64¢ $56 27d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $80 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $70 31d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $180 42d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $90 42d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $260 69d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 30-April 5? BUY No 99¢ $50 83d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Vitality 96¢ $200 83d
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $250 88d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 115d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 3-9? BUY Yes 98¢ $155 115d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 97¢ $240 133d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? BUY Yes 99¢ $222 138d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY No 96¢ $220 156d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $82 162d
Will Solana dip to $120 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $140 162d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $216 180d
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 93¢ $210 180d
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $221 213d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 October 27-November 2? BUY No 99¢ $220 237d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $260 259d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on October 31? BUY No 99¢ $140 259d
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 30% and 35%? BUY No 100¢ $60 259d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 285d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 99¢ $280 285d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.51 · official $256.51 (match) · 97 history records