Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7ccd…d915 other 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$433 (+0%) realized +$433 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%30W / 137L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,723per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,881now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$51
14 days+$147
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$173
politics 39% −$128
sports 10% +$716
world 3% −$14
economics 3% −$9
culture 2% −$14
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 +3.2% -6.6% 13% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 130 -3.7% -12.9% 12% 8% -9.5%
all 167 +1.2% -8.5% 18% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 13% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 13% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 11% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,192) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$12 · ×5.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$1,881
Realized+$433
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses30 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)167 / 169
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,723
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,698 $1,697 −$1 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $5,002 −$6 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11,753 −$12 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $3,325 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,444 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $4,407 −$6 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6,346 −$7 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $1,399 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,026 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $80 +$78 +97%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,426 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $5,559 −$7 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $55 +$68 +124%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $4,584 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $4,561 −$6 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,171 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $61 +$64 +105%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,479 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $6,410 −$8 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $50 +$33 +65%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $854 +$2 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,192 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,288 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $416 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $428 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2,035 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,243 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,197 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 28 $1,555 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,989 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $63 +$59 +93%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,513 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,606 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,698 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,379 17h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,380 18h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,434 21h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,436 25h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,526 39h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,528 41h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,649 45h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,651 47h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,438 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,441 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,145 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 3d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,425 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,427 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,433 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,435 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,355 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,356 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,525 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,528 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,397 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,399 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,414 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,416 6d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $184 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,509 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,512 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,292 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,294 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,881.35 · official $1,881.35 (match) · 579 history records