Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7ccb…520b sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$107 (-5%) realized −$9 · open −$98
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days+$94
14 days+$94
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$115
other 8% −$143
politics 5% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.1% -0.3% 93% 64% -4.4%
≤30d 21 +9.5% -1.0% 76% 57% -4.3%
≤90d 21 +9.5% -1.0% 76% 57% -4.3%
all 24 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 50% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 50% -11.3%
10% -21.6% 29% -19.8%
15% -29.2% 17% -27.5%
20% -36.1% 8% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$35 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage210d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 79¢ 40¢ $201 $103 −$98 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $167 +$35 +21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $125 +$42 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $291 +$62 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $227 +$14 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $215 +$23 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $99 +$7 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $144 −$144 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 +$3 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $1 +$2 +165%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $1 +$2 +158%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 26 $2 $0 -1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 26 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 08 $105 −$105 -100%
76ers vs. Nets Nov 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Warriors vs. Heat Nov 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $202 35m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $203 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $167 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $167 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $125 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $353 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $291 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $241 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $127 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $126 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $48 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $112 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $237 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $108 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $109 46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $106 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $106 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $99 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $144 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $8 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 7d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 18d
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY magic 37¢ $1 20d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY Heroic 22¢ $1 20d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 38¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.80 · official $123.13 · 45 history records