Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cc2…bf53 sports 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$484 (-3%) realized −$484 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%116W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,182
7 days−$226
14 days−$248
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$566
crypto 17% −$179
other 16% −$355
weather 2% −$31
world 0% −$16
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 39% -12.6%
≤30d 70 -15.4% -23.5% 39% 34% -13.3%
≤90d 275 -16.2% -24.2% 41% 36% -16.8%
all 288 -17.7% -25.5% 40% 36% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 36% -17.0%
10% -32.7% 30% -24.9%
15% -39.2% 27% -32.2%
20% -45.1% 18% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$25 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses116 / 172
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions0
Markets (closed)288 / 288
History coverage93d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 288 Trades
no open positions (120 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $226 −$222 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $383 −$159 -42%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $175 −$91 -52%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $91 +$84 +93%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $225 −$220 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $404 −$400 -99%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $244 −$8 -3%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $62 −$61 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $152 −$5 -3%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $152 −$5 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 +$81 +40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $841 +$70 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $354 +$179 +51%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $14 +$6 +42%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $153 +$196 +129%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $90 +$156 +172%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $22 −$1 -3%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $154 −$24 -16%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $304 −$10 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $232 +$128 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$105 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$58 +58%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $188 +$86 +46%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 13 $14 −$1 -10%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $12 −$11 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $52 +$23 +44%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $27 −$26 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $6 +$2 +32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $81 +$47 +58%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $113 +$50 +44%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $200 +$12 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $71 +$24 +34%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $120 +$38 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $15 −$12 -76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $50 +$55 +109%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $13 +$6 +48%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $42 −$41 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $112 +$58 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $119 −$8 -7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -98%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $65 +$29 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $226 57m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $224 57m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $82 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 26¢ $84 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $175 1h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 1h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $91 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $383 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $5 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $225 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $404 7h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 75¢ $15 13h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 28¢ $62 15h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $152 18h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $91 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $283 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $202 32h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 51¢ $152 37h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $152 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $911 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $841 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $533 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $354 2d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 43¢ $153 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 36¢ $90 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 70¢ $14 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 51¢ $22 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Alycia Parks 22¢ $6 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 51¢ $152 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 595 history records