Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cbe…c4b7 other 368 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$15,506 (+18%) realized +$10,431 · open +$1,303
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%113W / 104L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day114.8pace
Fees−$1,033est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$33,107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,754
7 days+$3,283
14 days−$2,123
30 days+$10,431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$10,461
sports 38% +$1,296
world 0% −$30
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +2.9% -6.9% 66% 25% +12.0%
≤30d 217 +31.6% +19.1% 52% 33% +6.7%
≤90d 217 +31.6% +19.1% 52% 33% +6.7%
all 217 +31.6% +19.1% 52% 33% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.1% 33% +6.7%
10% ← realistic here +7.7% 29% -3.5%
15% -2.7% 27% -12.8%
20% -12.2% 24% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$140 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$33,107
Realized+$10,431
Unrealized+$1,303
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses113 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,033
Open positions171
Markets (closed)217 / 368
History coverage28d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day114.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 171 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 90¢ 95¢ $4,429 $4,685 +$256 (+6%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $2,566 $2,650 +$83 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 57¢ 57¢ $1,837 $1,853 +$16 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1,713 $1,409 −$304 (-18%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 64¢ $922 $1,392 +$471 (+51%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1,674 $1,319 −$354 (-21%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $848 $1,121 +$274 (+32%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $738 $741 +$2 (+0%)
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 37¢ $407 $649 +$242 (+60%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 28¢ $631 $646 +$15 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 38¢ 38¢ $608 $616 +$8 (+1%)
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 50¢ 92¢ $329 $607 +$278 (+85%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 54¢ $460 $582 +$122 (+27%)
Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $551 $564 +$13 (+2%)
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 49¢ 57¢ $475 $560 +$85 (+18%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $536 $504 −$32 (-6%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $488 $497 +$9 (+2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $478 $494 +$16 (+3%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 41¢ 18¢ $933 $409 −$523 (-56%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 25¢ $358 $406 +$49 (+14%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $401 $403 +$2 (+0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $380 $390 +$10 (+3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $298 $377 +$79 (+27%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $375 $368 −$7 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 72¢ 72¢ $342 $344 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 14 $144 +$27 +19%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $28 +$7 +24%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $880 +$2,085 +237%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2,590 +$160 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $583 +$2,583 +443%
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $222 +$4 +2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,063 −$328 -16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,200 +$100 +2%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $363 −$363 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +194%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +245%
Spread: Costa Rica (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 11 $7 $0 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +86%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +42%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: Northern Ireland (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: Burkina Faso (-2.5) Jun 11 $11 $0 +3%
Spread: Nicaragua (-2.5) Jun 11 $14 $0 +3%
Spread: Iceland (-2.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Spread: San Marino (-2.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $117 +$9 +8%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +70%
Spread: Liechtenstein (-2.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Spread: Andorra (-2.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Spread: Trinidad and Tobago (-2.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $10 +$10 +92%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $23 +$1 +5%
Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) Jun 11 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $15 +$15 +100%
Spread: Honduras (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 +$1 +3%
Spread: Costa Rica (-2.5) Jun 11 $42 +$1 +2%
Spread: Peru (-2.5) Jun 11 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 11 $16 +$32 +203%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $47 +$2 +5%
Spread: Honduras (-2.5) Jun 11 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $20 +$45 +227%
Spread: Peru (-1.5) Jun 11 $83 +$2 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $52 +$54 +104%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $331 +$14 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $240 +$204 +85%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $52 7m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $153 7m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 9m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 10m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 15m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $37 18m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1,600 20m
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 29¢ $94 20m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 23m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 27m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 27m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 27m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 35m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $823 36m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $100 37m
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $11 38m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 38m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 40m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 40m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 40m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 40m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 40m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 40m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 40m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 40m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 41m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 41m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 41m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 41m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,106.60 · official $33,107.28 (match) · 3500 history records