Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7C 0x7cbe…83c2 crypto 1757 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$191 (+1%) realized +$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate71%1504W / 627L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day96.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,703
7 days−$1,717
14 days−$1,589
30 days−$1,740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$161
other 4% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1305 -28.0% -34.9% 62% 38% -17.3%
≤30d 2131 -17.3% -25.2% 71% 44% -14.6%
≤90d 2131 -17.3% -25.2% 71% 44% -14.6%
all 2131 -17.3% -25.2% 71% 44% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 44% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 9% -22.8%
15% -38.9% 1% -30.2%
20% -44.9% 1% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1504 / 627
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2131 / 1757
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day96.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 428 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $22 46m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $22 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $22 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $22 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $22 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $22 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $22 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $22 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $22 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $22 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $22 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $22 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $22 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $22 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3500 history records