Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7cbc…5196
sports · 1036 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$7,044 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,536 · open −$1,049
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,009
Realized−$6,536
Unrealized−$1,049
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses291 / 675
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions67
Markets (closed)966 / 1036
History coverage668d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 67 History 966 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$167
14 days+$150
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $2,529 $2,079 −$451 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1,025 $835 −$190 (-19%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $520 $515 −$5 (-1%)
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $261 $348 +$87 (+33%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $243 $271 +$28 (+11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $107 $162 +$55 (+51%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 72¢ $78 $143 +$65 (+83%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $112 $124 +$12 (+11%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 56¢ 56¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $162 $86 −$76 (-47%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $102 $79 −$23 (-23%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 31¢ $140 $73 −$68 (-48%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31? Yes 15¢ 46¢ $20 $62 +$42 (+209%)
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B? Yes 47¢ 22¢ $108 $50 −$58 (-54%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30? Yes 14¢ 40¢ $15 $43 +$28 (+188%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $41 $36 −$6 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B? Yes 43¢ 20¢ $65 $31 −$34 (-52%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $31 +$167 +544%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $150 +$436 +290%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $21 +$8 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 03 $56 −$55 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $303 −$300 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $78 −$76 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $95 +$70 +74%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $51 +$42 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $46 +$59 +129%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 31 $8 +$9 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $61 −$8 -13%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 26 $232 −$230 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 26 $54 −$53 -99%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 25 $15 −$15 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $200 +$127 +64%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) May 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $465 +$243 +52%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $145 −$142 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 20 $70 −$4 -6%
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 20 $400 −$79 -20%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 20 $15 +$15 +97%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Vitor Roque be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Savinho be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $100 +$73 +73%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? May 18 $79 +$218 +277%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $26 +$51 +199%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 35% −$1,237
other 35% −$3,955
politics 9% −$1,592
world 8% +$1,352
crypto 7% −$625
tech 3% −$923
culture 3% −$175
economics 1% −$402
finance 0% −$22
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $117 1h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 56¢ $44 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $528 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
O/U 3.5 Rounds BUY Over 31¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $130 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $181 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $112 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 7d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL No 44¢ $29 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $41 7d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $436 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 49¢ $56 10d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Spurs 23¢ $10 10d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs 30¢ $10 10d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 36¢ $10 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $303 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $11 13d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 29¢ $21 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 13d
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14d
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 14d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $71 14d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $165 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +543.7% +482.4% 100% 100% +482.4%
≤30d 55 -6.2% -15.2% 33% 33% -7.7%
≤90d 155 -0.5% -9.9% 30% 29% -28.9%
all 966 -19.6% -27.3% 30% 29% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 29% -24.6%
10% -34.2% 28% -31.8%
15% -40.6% 26% -38.4%
20% -46.4% 24% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,008.95 · official $6,010.24 (match) · 2522 history records