Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7cbc…2b18 sports 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,204 (+2%) realized +$1,264 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate42%132W / 181L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$452
7 days−$5
14 days+$164
30 days+$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$2,153
other 38% −$1,034
politics 1% −$57
world 1% +$32
weather 1% −$52
crypto 1% −$23
tech 0% −$54
finance 0% −$27
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.5% -4.6% 80% 40% -9.6%
≤30d 38 -7.4% -16.2% 74% 32% -8.0%
≤90d 313 -5.7% -14.7% 42% 24% -7.5%
all 313 -5.7% -14.7% 42% 24% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 24% -7.5%
10% -22.8% 18% -16.3%
15% -30.3% 14% -24.4%
20% -37.1% 12% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$23 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$998
Realized+$1,264
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses132 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions2
Markets (closed)313 / 315
History coverage69d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $978 $985 +$7 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $80 $13 −$67 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $792 +$194 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $744 +$48 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $525 +$210 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,042 −$518 -50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $992 +$61 +6%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,100 −$75 -7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,005 +$51 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $952 +$126 +13%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $901 +$45 +5%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $813 +$93 +11%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $1,001 −$194 -19%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Will EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? May 30 $101 −$98 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $980 +$128 +13%
Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 26 $1,972 −$12 -1%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $886 +$116 +13%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Alejandro Moro Canas May 26 $841 +$44 +5%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $801 +$41 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic May 25 $103 −$94 -92%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 25 $871 +$19 +2%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,802 +$71 +4%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 23 $198 +$56 +28%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $2,208 −$542 -25%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $201 +$21 +11%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $2,005 +$190 +10%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $1,709 +$337 +20%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $166 +$40 +24%
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw? May 23 $202 −$139 -69%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? May 23 $201 +$58 +29%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian May 22 $1,732 +$50 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $1,652 +$67 +4%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $1,600 +$14 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 21 $1,600 +$13 +1%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez May 19 $1,601 +$18 +1%
Will Hannover 96 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw? May 17 $881 +$742 +84%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $869 +$13 +2%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $851 +$16 +2%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Fiona Ferro vs Elina May 17 $801 +$33 +4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $734 +$86 +12%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$4 +23%
Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw? May 15 $419 +$310 +74%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1,106 −$778 -70%
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 14 $893 +$303 +34%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 10 $763 +$131 +17%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $720 +$45 +6%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $700 +$14 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $987 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $986 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $792 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $792 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $744 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $735 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $525 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $524 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,042 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,053 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $992 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $83 7d
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $122 8d
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 8d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,025 8d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,100 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,056 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 88¢ $952 11d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran SELL Alexander Donski 100¢ $947 12d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran BUY Alexander Donski 95¢ $901 12d
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton SELL Hynek Barton 100¢ $905 15d
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton BUY Hynek Barton 89¢ $813 15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Detroit Tigers 79¢ $807 16d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 97¢ $1,001 16d
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies BUY West Indies 16¢ $10 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,009 17d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 100¢ $1,009 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 99¢ $1,000 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $998.24 · official $998.24 (match) · 1032 history records