Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7cba…3ec4 sports 1314 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,698 (-3%) realized −$6,985 · open +$287
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%570W / 739L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1,983est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$350
7 days+$102
14 days+$940
30 days−$2,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$8,623
other 1% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 44% -8.5%
≤30d 289 -13.9% -22.1% 45% 45% -15.4%
≤90d 1156 -24.5% -31.7% 36% 36% -27.3%
all 1309 -7.0% -15.9% 44% 43% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 43% -13.5%
10% -23.9% 42% -21.8%
15% -31.3% 39% -29.4%
20% -38.0% 34% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$129 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$2,186
Realized−$6,985
Unrealized+$287
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses570 / 739
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,983
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1309 / 1314
History coverage269d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $500 $484 −$16 (-3%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 57¢ 100¢ $250 $437 +$187 (+75%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 37¢ 100¢ $99 $270 +$171 (+172%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$177 +174%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $153 +$188 +124%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $160 −$158 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$231 +114%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$143 +70%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $172 −$169 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$127 +125%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $203 −$165 -82%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $69 −$67 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$137 +67%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$120 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$123 +121%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $203 +$264 +130%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $203 +$197 +97%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $117 +$219 +186%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$168 +165%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$154 +152%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$84 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$243 +474%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $510 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $51 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ $202 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 37¢ $51 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 37¢ $101 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $102 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $203 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 33h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 56¢ $160 47h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 36¢ $102 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 44¢ $153 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 52¢ $101 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 99¢ $345 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 57¢ $203 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 46¢ $203 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 12¢ $51 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 13¢ $51 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $172 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $229 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 11¢ $38 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $305 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 57¢ $203 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 54¢ $203 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 55¢ $203 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 20¢ $102 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 11¢ $17 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 16¢ $52 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 44¢ $102 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 22¢ $82 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,186.02 · official $2,186.02 (match) · 2940 history records